P2P Lending has been in the mainstream media news a great deal lately. I decided to post a roundup of many of the recent news articles on Prosper.com, Lending Club, Zopa, GlobeFunder, and Virgin Money. It is unfortunate that Lending Club entered a quiet period just as they were gaining tremendous growth in loan volume.

CNBC February 5th, 2008: From Zero to Millions: Financing Your New Business:

Online Family Lending Use a lending network designed for inter-family loans, such as CircleLending.com. Tools at that site will help you and your relative come to terms on the length of the loan and the interest rate, and calculate the monthly payment amount. For $99, CircleLending issues a legally binding promissory note and a repayment schedule. For $9 per payment, the company will set up automatic repayments using electronic funds transfer.

Peer-to-peer Lending: Several websites now make it much easier to find an investor who will back your business. Check out prosper.com, lendingclub.com and zopa.com.

Lending Club’s founder financed his first company with personal loans and high-interest credit cards. He eventually sold the business to Oracle. That experience inspired his new company. Lending Club, which launched on Facebook in May 2007 and on its own site last September, uses technology to match borrowers to lenders willing to offer unsecured loans of $500 to $25,000 with three-year, fully amortizing terms.

The author, Laura Rowley, must have used some old notes because Read the rest of this entry »

I often read that borrowers in one state or another are more likely to default on Prosper loans. I decided to investigate if there is any truth to the likelihood that some states are worse credit risks than others. The example that often comes to mind is Georgia which has a high default rate. Currently Georgia has nearly 8% defaults and about 10% late which is a higher than average rate of late loans, but nine states have more loans that are two or more months late than Georgia.

My interest in state by state loan default rates prompted my article Pennsylvania Loans: What were early Prosper lenders thinking? At the same time, I noticed how state interest rate caps vary widely from state to state — Pennsylvania 6% and Georgia 36%. I decided to see if the interest rate caps could partially explain the difference in Prosper loan default rates by state. My theory is Read the rest of this entry »

I received a promotional email from GlobeFunder today. What amazes me is that they seem to be targeting hedge fund qualified investors, but the email says that they have only originated $100,000 loans since January 1st, 2008. That is a slow start in volume and one that is not likely to entice many major institutions to invest. It is not worth the paperwork to invest such small sums from a large portfolio — it simply will not move the ROI needle. Dwarfing that number Prosper has pushed out $117 million in loan volume. The same article mentions that January 2008 alone was $7.2 million in loans.

Edit 11/28/2008 : See the comments following this article in the comments by the Globfunder CEO.

Here is the text of the GlobeFunder email:

When the media is absorbed in (some would say paralyzed by) the global credit crisis and market downturn, it’s hard to bring attention to a global event closer to home: GlobeFunder is shaking-up the traditional lending world. But we’re being noticed by the likes of Forbes and others Read the rest of this entry »

Eric, of Eric’s Credit Community, today announced on his site the launch of LendingClubStats.com.

There are currently a few different chart categories including:

• Loan growth rate shows great growth in the loans extended on Lending Club.
• Loans by Current or Late Status. Eric points out that this chart is currently useless because of the average age of the loans. I mentioned the same thing about the loan late rates posted on Lending Club’s site.
• Also posted are Read the rest of this entry »

I noticed that Lending Club is denying most loans. Since that time, Lending Club has started posting the rejected loan profiles on the statistics page. Scroll to the bottom of that page for the file. The data is missing several fields that you would use to evaluate a loan, but it is still interesting. For example, 285 applications of 6672 rejected loans had no FICO score. The highest Debt to Income ratio listed was 3626400%. That is not a typo — 3626400%.

Of course I am missing some key data, but one looked like a potentially good loan which was rejected for being over the 30% DTI.
$25,000.00 1/7/2008 family loan FICO: 815 DTI: 33.60% memphis TN

Lending Club may be passing up good money by rejecting loans like this one. In cases like this, it might be better to let lenders decide if they want to take the risk. However, on others I was glad to see the loans rejected because there was an amazing amount of complete junk Read the rest of this entry »

My funds arrived to Prosper Marketplace a few days ago. I planned to jump into Prosper and start carefully selecting loans for funding. I browsed a few loans, but I have cold feet.

So I opened my blog to reflect…. Why am I nervous about bidding? I had no problem lending on Lending Club for a total of about $1,000 to date. So why is Prosper Marketplace different?

My trouble in starting to bid seems to come down to the openness of the market. That same openness is great for transparency. As I have read on other blogs, browsing P2P lending is voyeurism. I think it is a bit of Voyeurism and Exhibitionism.

Peer-to-Peer lending feels voyeuristic for several reasons:

• Many loans provide interesting, entertaining, or just odd stories.
• After browsing loans, you cannot help but to feel more secure in your own financial future because you had to read so many poor quality loans.
• It can be fun to pass judgment on others occasionally and with Prosper or Lending Club, you can decide who receives funding and who does not.
• Peer-to-Peer lending allows you to feel superior to others who are not as financially savvy. That is why most of them need the money.

Peer-to-Peer lending is great fun to view the financial lives of others. I like that part of the openness.

So what about the exhibitionism? Read the rest of this entry »

I decided to review the statistics at Lending Club and I scrolled down past the table towards the CSV file of data. There I noticed an amazing figure — Loans Not Approved for Listing. 5,137 loans for $44.9 million dollars have been denied for listing on Lending Club. The total number of loans approved is only 645 for $5.2 million. Only 11.2% of all loans submitted to the site were approved for listing, so Lending Club is attempting to keep out many of the lower quality lenders despite the fees that they could earn for originating possibly many of those loans. [Update: See the comments by Rob at Lending Club to know what loans are denied.]

I am glad to see how many loans they are filtering out, but one statistic on the page bothers me – the percentage of Lending Club’s late loans is currently premature to present in my mind. Currently, the percentage late is listed as 0.47% with a footnote that reads: Read the rest of this entry »

Glenn Chapman wrote an article about P2P lending which can be found at Yahoo.com News. Included in the article were Prosper.com, Virgin Money, Kiva, and Zopa. Below are a few excerpts from Glenn Chapman’s article and my comments. Glenn Chapman begins the rehashed material article with a great feel-good tag line:

The Internet is directly connecting investors and borrowers, letting them take banks out of the lending equation and put their money where their hearts and dreams are.

Never mind the details that Zopa is actually adding a layer of bureaucracy between the bank of the people involved rather than removing it in its US based model:

Zopa feels US investors are steering clear of risk so, in contrast to its London-based service, the firm guarantees lenders will get their money back. Lenders at Zopa put their money into the equivalent of certificates of deposit, selecting borrowers they want to direct funds to and picking interest rates from pre-set ranges. Zopa banks on its borrower-screening savvy to minimize losses.

On to the Prosper.com information listed in the article because this was my reason for posting about Glenn Chapman’s article in the first place…

If a Prosper borrower fails to pay back a loan the default is reported to credit agencies and eventually sold to collection agencies. The default rate on Prosper loans is a meager three percent.

There are several items related to Prosper.com that people complain about 1) censorship (see my article on Prosper editing Wikipedia and the comments at the WSJ) 2) poor collections (link to one of Prosper’s Top Lenders Collections Issues) and 3) the default rate is higher than expected and advertised.

Prosper claims the default rate is 3% which is only technically true by the Prosper.com definition of a default and includes all loans — even very recent ones. The 3% default figure does not take into account that the average three-year loan is only less than one year old. Prosper statistics on Lending Stats can easily prove this. Take a look at the below graph generated from LendingStats.com:

Prosper’s statistics are technically correct per their definition — less than 3% of Prosper loans have been put in the status of “defaulted.” However, for a Prosper loan to go into default, it must be more than 4 months late and only once per quarter are all loans which are more than four months late are classified as defaulted.

Considering that the average age of a loan listed currently at Prosper is only 284 days (approximately 9.5 months) and that it takes four or more months to be considered in default, there are many more loans that are going to default in the near future. See this prosper statistics page which shows default rates on loans originated in the first several months of the site to be in excess of 20%. That is right, the default rate is probably going to actually be more than 20% after three years. A default rate of 1 in 5 loans is horrible. Banks would be out of business, but Prosper does not share in the risk only the people lending.

How Many Prosper Loans are Late? Read the rest of this entry »